Trading Operations

Gann cycle research · Alpaca paper execution · read-only control plane · Open analysis lab

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PILOT PAPER — UNQUALIFIED MODELS · SIMULATED ALPACA ORDERS · MULTI-TICKER TEST SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA are evaluated independently; this bounded exception does not qualify or promote them.
Engine ?
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Market ?
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Alpaca paper clock
Portfolio equity ?
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Buying power ?
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Multi-ticker model monitor ?

Read each card from top to bottom: today’s calendar stage, the latest completed-daily-bar decision, forecast window, then out-of-sample evidence. These can briefly differ before a new daily bar completes. A forecast is a watch period—not an automatic order.

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Latest system intent ?

No evaluation recorded
WAITING
The worker has not produced a decision.

    Portfolio positions ?

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    Active execution gates ?

    Risk envelope ?

    System health ?

    Primary model detail ?

    This frozen artifact controls the selected mode. Pilot paper mode may exercise an explicitly authorized unqualified artifact at reduced simulated risk.

    Latest research candidate ?

    Research results are shown even when they fail qualification. Only the explicit, bounded pilot mode may send an unqualified candidate to Alpaca paper trading.

    Course market structure

    Up day Down day Confirmed pivotsForecast window

    Completed Alpaca daily bars. Pivots use the frozen three-bar confirmation rule; shaded bands are model forecast windows.

    Lunar cycle wheel

    Geocentric Moon position from the course dataset. The red arc is the fixed ±15° Aries inversion zone; entering it never triggers an inversion by itself.

    Forward forecast calendar

    Low / buy watch High / sell watchToday

    Windows express timing hypotheses, not orders. A trade still requires confirmed structure, mode authorization, market availability, and every risk gate.

    Latest candidate qualification

    Blue is achieved performance; the amber marker is the frozen minimum. Execution remains blocked until every mandatory threshold passes.

    Recent decisions ?

    No decisions yet.

    Orders & proposed executions ?

    No order intents yet.
    Plain-language glossary — what every unusual term means
    Pilot paper
    Autonomous simulated trading using Alpaca’s paper account. No real capital is sent to the market.
    Qualified / unqualified
    Whether a model passed every frozen statistical gate. Pilot mode can test unqualified models, but the warning remains visible.
    Frozen model
    A version whose parameters and hash are locked so live testing cannot quietly change the rules.
    Forecast window
    A calendar date range in which the course timing model expects a meaningful high or low. It is a watch period, not an order.
    Completed daily bar
    The last fully closed market day used for decisions. Today’s calendar window can begin before that bar becomes available.
    Polarity
    The expected turning-point type: LOW watches for a bullish reversal; HIGH watches for a bearish reversal.
    Structure confirmation
    Price must break the model’s recent high or low boundary before a forecast becomes a trade signal.
    Time hit
    The percentage of forecast windows that landed close enough to a confirmed market pivot.
    Polarity accuracy
    Among timing hits, the percentage that correctly called whether the pivot was a high or a low.
    Baseline lift
    How much the model’s timing hit rate beats a simple naïve timing baseline. Positive is better; the frozen target is 5%.
    Net expectancy (R)
    Average simulated outcome per trade after paper costs. R normalizes profit or loss by the amount initially risked.
    PBO
    Probability of backtest overfitting: an estimate of how likely model selection found noise instead of a durable pattern.
    Adjusted p-value
    A multiple-testing-aware significance check. Lower values provide stronger evidence that timing results were not luck.
    Lunar cycle
    A repeating Moon-position interval fitted from the course dataset and historical market pivots.
    COR
    Cycle of Repetition: planetary-expression timing that must align with the lunar forecast within a fixed day tolerance.
    Inversion
    A frozen course rule that may flip the expected high/low polarity when the specified planetary conditions occur.
    Angle of Repetition (AOR)
    A Square-of-Nine price relationship used as live price confluence; price must be close enough to a projected level.
    ATR
    Average True Range, a volatility measure used to express price tolerance and some stop distances.
    Signal attrition
    How many initial lunar candidates remain after COR, price, inversion, and other course filters are applied.
    Risk per position
    Maximum account loss planned if one position reaches its protective stop.
    Gross exposure
    Total absolute market value of all long and short positions, divided by account equity.
    Reconciliation
    A safety comparison between local order records and Alpaca’s open orders and positions.
    Pyramiding
    Adding another entry to a ticker that already has a position. It is blocked in this pilot.
    Stage: WAIT / WATCH
    WAIT means no active forecast. WATCH means a forecast is active but entry confirmation has not passed.
    Stage: SIGNAL / ORDER / POSITION
    SIGNAL passed model logic; ORDER was submitted; POSITION means Alpaca reports an active holding.

    Audit trail ?

    No activity recorded.